Hi From Pagosa Country!

It is a beautiful Sunday morning, and this is my second attempt to put this newsletter together in the past week. I will start off with the Real Estate news at a glance.

As you will see in the statistics to follow, the market continues to be sluggish.  Inventory is increasing, and sales are down from last year. The only unusual number is condo inventory, which is down 13%.  This number is misleading.  A condo complex that was under construction and on the market has been temporarily halted, and those units have been pulled out of the inventory.  I have seen sparks of business here and there.  Three weeks ago, I had four new transactions come together in one day. Two are still in the works and look good, but the other two fell through the cracks.  Both were repo’s.  One became part of a four-way bidding war and will sell for more than full price.

Lately, it seems like most of the properties that get sold are really good deals.  In most cases, being reasonably priced just doesn’t cut it in today’s stressed market.  My best guess is that we will see the market continue to be soft until next spring.  Hopefully, with a new president, we will gain new optimism.  Then we will see a stretch of maybe a year of flat pricing, but there will be more sales to take away the oversupply. Until we can balance the supply and demand, prices will decline or stay flat.

Sellers who are priced ahead of the curve are much more likely to get their property sold.  Then they can move on and reap the benefits of a buyer’s market on their next transaction.  Possibly, this will more than offset the loss in value on their current property.  Buyers have to recognize a great deal when they see it, and they must be willing and able to pull the trigger.

I recently did an informal survey of our local merchants.  The tourist industry is holding its own.  Motels, restaurants, and many merchants are seeing decent sales. Customers are coming from closer parts of the country (due to gas prices), but they are still coming.  This is better news than I expected.  On the other side of the coin, business activity related to construction and real estate is down.

As a Realtor, I have been feeling sorry for myself, remembering the good ol’ days of three years ago when I made three times as much as I am now.  I wish I had stored more acorns.  Sometimes it’s a struggle to think positive, so I have been trying to jump start my mind.  I am a firm believer in the theory that you become what you think about most.  I started re-reading my favorite book of all time, Think and Grow Rich, by Napoleon Hill.  I have several copies that I have purchased, and I especially enjoy giving them away to teenagers.  I also use them for a high school scholarship program dealing with goal setting.  If you would like a copy, please let me know, and I will give you a free one as long as you agree to two conditions:  First, when you are done, give me a call to let me know whether you enjoyed it.  Second, pass it on.  A lot of the ideas are similar to what many of you have heard or seen in the latest motivational phenomenon, The Secret.

On a local note, the Four Corners Folk Festival is coming up.  It is my favorite party of the year.  If you haven’t gone to this event in the past, you are really missing a great music festival.  This year it will be held August 29th – 31st.  For more information, visit www.FolkWest.com

So long for now.  Think Positive and have a great Rest of the Year!

Lee Riley
970-946-3856 (cell)

leeriley@isellpagosa.com

P.S.  Remember, with my CRS referral network, I can provide you with a top notch Realtor anywhere in the country.  CRS stands for Certified Residential Specialist, a professional designation that only 4% of the Realtors in the country have earned.  If you or someone you know is relocating, I can refer you to a certified CRS agent.
 

PAGOSA SPRINGS REAL ESTATE STATISTICS
Jan-July of 2006, 2007, and 2008
**Note: These numbers may not be exact.**
% Difference indicates change from 2007 to 2008
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Homes 2006 2007 2008 % Difference 2006 2007 2008 % Difference
$0-100,000 20 9 8 -11% 13 17 21 +24%
$100,001 to 150,000 12 9 15 +67% 17 28 31 +11%
$150,001 to 200,000 29 15 14 -7% 19 30 38 +27%
$200,001 to 250,000 32 22 11 -50% 35 46 65 +41%
$250,001 to 300,000 27 16 19 +19% 38 42 82 +95%
$300,001 to 400,000 26 24 9 -63% 62 98 119 +21%
$400,001 to 500,000 16 7 7 +0% 32 71 60 -15%
$500,001 to 750,000 13 13 10 -23% 65 73 75 +3%
$750,001 to 1,000,000 8 4 4 +0% 33 49 44 -10%
$1,000,001 plus 4 1 4 +300% 39 45 49 +9%
All 187 120 101 -16% 353 499 584 +17%
                 
Median Sale Closed $252,750 $260,750 $265,000 +$4,250 Up 1.6%      
                 
Days on Market 153 191 208 +17 Up 9%      
                 
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Condos 2006 2007 2008 % Difference 2006 2007 2008 % Difference
$0-100,000 8 3 4 +33% 1 3 8 +167%
$100,001-200,000 19 11 8 -27% 24 35 49 +40%
$200,001-300,000 10 4 7 +75% 16 31 27 -13%
$300,001 plus 13 8 4 -50% 51 68 35 -49%
All 50 26 23 -12% 92 137 119 -13%
                 
Median Sale Closed $182,250 $167,500 $162,500 -$5,000 Down 3%      
                 
Days on Market 158 212 275 +63 Up 30%      
                 
                 
  Properties Sold Inventory Available
Vacant Lots 2006 2007 2008 % Difference 2006 2007